The recent explosion of interest in CCS and CCUS has spurred the development of a myriad of new carbon capture processes: Post-combustion solvent, sorbent, membrane, and hybrid systems, biological approaches like algae, Direct Air Capture (DAC) methods, and more. In this context, potential customers, financing providers, and other industry participants need be aware of the development timeframes involved and the key factors which will determine the success of these ventures.
Not Like Software
Unlike other technology industries such as Software as a Service (SAAS), carbon capture involves lengthier development timeframes owing to the necessary physical scale-up process involved. In almost all cases, advancing a new carbon capture or utilization process from concept (Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 1) to commercial deployment (TRL 8-9) involves a minimum of ten years with a well-executed and well-funded program*. This has been demonstrated by the histories of today’s leading commercially available processes. The majority of this time involves piloting and demonstration (TRL 6 to 9) where a new technology is ultimately proven in order to support commercial performance guarantees. When a new process leaves a controlled laboratory environment, this is often where unforeseen development challenges can arise. Careful planning informed by experience is critical.
Technological Success Factors
With the above in mind, and in an increasingly competitive CCUS marketplace, success depends on two aspects. First, the technology must meet and/or exceed carbon emitter needs. Second, the company must possess the right mix of expertise, intellectual property strategy, partnerships, funding, and marketing.
From a technology perspective, the following factors should be considered in the context of addressing evolving customer needs:
Cost
Approx. $50/tonne or less at large scale for a post-combustion application (typical steam boiler, before compression) to be competitive in an uncertain subsidy environment
Efficient heat utilization and modularized can improve process economics
For intensified processes such as rotating contactors, increased electricity consumption must be addressed
Environmental Life Cycle
Minimal biosphere (air, land and water) impacts, including from the supply chain
Operating Range
Robustness to a range of flue gas conditions and contaminants
CO2 Purity
High purity output for application to a range of uses and to reduce the need for post-treatment
Physical Footprint
Reasonable equipment size to accommodate a variety of sites which may be space-constrained
Supply Chain Scale
Reliable commercial scale availability of solvents and other consumables, as well as vendor-specific components
Simplicity of Operation
Reasonable simplicity to minimize the need for specialized operators, special safety requirements, waste management logistics, etc.
Ultimately, a customer’s choice of technology is governed by emission source-specific factors as they relate to cost, environmental performance, ease of operation, as well as ability of ability of the technology provider to execute and support the project.
In an upcoming Part 2 of this discussion, we will address non-technological success factors and how the odds of reaching commercial deployment can be improved. Stay tuned!
CCUS Experts is here as your experienced resource to help ensure the success of technology commercialization programs and reduce the time to market. We also perform and assist with techno-economic and environmental due diligences, business planning, government financing, intellectual property strategy, and provide expert market insights to efficiently navigate this rapidly evolving industry. If you are a carbon emitter, financing provider, technology developer, or professional services firm seeking experienced CCUS advice, please reach out to us at info@ccusexperts.com or by phone at +1 (905) 320-6260.
*Sources: A.S. Bhown (Electric Power Research Institute) and CCUS Experts analysis
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